How early is it?
A few thoughts on the first ten (or so) games of the season, and what comes next
Welcome back…
Has it really been three years since I’ve sent one of these newsletters out? Most of you probably forgot that you even subscribed in the first place. Sorry if the appearance of this in your inbox startled you.
So why a newsletter again? Well, somewhere between the pieces that I still contribute on occasion to Sportsnet and my endless tweeting, it feels like there’s maybe room for the further elucidation of certain points, and some more time-sensitive reactions to what’s happening with the Jays, especially in this most anticipated of seasons.
So, here we go.
It gets late early out there…
I recognize how tiresome it is for some folks to hear the perpetual invocation of the assertion that “it’s early”, and maybe there’s some added legitimacy to fans’ impatience this season.
Missing the playoffs by a single game in the previous season will certainly help to make a game in early April against a team from another division feel like it has a playoff atmosphere.
Still, you couldn’t be blamed for feeling antsy after what you’ve seen so far.
The preseason hype train was hurtling mightily and out of control by the time the lockout concluded, ready to plow off the tracks like when Keanu Reeves took control of the Los Angeles subway at the end of the movie Speed. (Sorry for the 30-year old spoiler.)
In those first ten games, the Jays have had three, maybe four good outings from their starting pitchers, and their vaunted offence has been shut out twice. Their opening day starter has yet to perform to expectations. Their cleanup hitter is on the injured list, and somehow Danny Jansen seemed poised to fulfill his promise and immediately earned himself an extended stay in the core-and-side muscle intensive care unit for the foreseeable future.
Still, they have yet to lose a series, and at the writing of this, the Jays have played ten games, won six, and sit in first place in the AL East.
And who currently leads this team in OPS+? A catcher who just parachuted into the active roster, whose chief value to the active roster was his ability to be demoted off of it without losing him, and to whom none of us had given even the most passing notice before he arrived last week.
The early going is funny that way.
The lockout and and last season’s so-close-so-gutting finish fed the the anticipation, so a famished fanbase is ready to gobble up all the narrative that can be served, half-baked or not. But this isn’t to say that there’s nothing to be discerned from the season thus far. (Otherwise, why am I here in your emails, prattling on?)
It’s just that at this point, what we can draw from the early season’s results has more to do with universal truisms than conclusions to be drawn from microsamples.
So what have we learned?
Pitchers ain’t quite right: Beyond Hyun-jin Ryu and José Berríos, there are a number of pitchers who have stumbled out of the gate after the lockout-induced short spring training.
Tonight’s starter, Yusei Kikuchi, arrived with some offseason fanfare and a three-year deal, but his first start was a furtive and messy 3.1 innings against the Yankees, where his velocity wasn’t always there and the location was here, there and everywhere.
It’s hardly an easy gig for Kikuchi, to be thrown into Yankees Stadium and Fenway Park in his first two starts for the Blue Jays, though tonight’s start will take on some added significance given Ryu’s trip to the IL after his previous start.
Where expectations could have been tamped down for the Japanese lefty in March, when he was just the team’s fifth starter, the bump up to the putative fourth spot in the rotation means that the Jays will need a bit more from him, especially entering into hellacious piece of the schedule with no off days and many contenders on the docket.
(One could ask whether if Kikuchi necessarily bumps up into the fourth spot in the rotation, or if Ross Stripling might leapfrog him in that pecking order. Not that it matters on the field nearly as much as it matters in the general speculation from the cheap seats.)
Nate Pearson would have been an ideal candidate to step into a more important role right about now, but accursed as he is, he’s just begun to work his way back from his bout with mono. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted over the weekend that he had a bullpen session planned, so expect to hear in the coming day or two for any further progress, though building him up to take on reliable starters innings may not be a short-term solution.
I have a few more thoughts on the outlook for the Jays’ pitching staff, but that’s all the way over in another browser tab at the moment.
Hitters aren’t exactly on fire either: In our excitement between the signing of the collective bargaining agreement and the start of the season, there was some marvelling at the length of the Blue Jays lineup.
It’s amazing how much shorter it feels without Tesoscar Hernández in it.
The Blue Jays have given ample opportunity early on to Raimel Tapia to step in and claim all the at bats available in the vacant outfield spot, including hitting him in the middle and top of the lineup. Unfortunately, Tapia has been mostly ineffective, going 5-for-21 with only one of those hits leaving the infield in the air. Indeed, Tapia has taken last year’s most incredible data point, his -4.9 degree launch angle, and somehow reinforced it with a -9.6 degree launch angle in the early (early!!!) parts of this season, according to Baseball Savant.
(One more figure that stretches credulity on that page is that Tapia’s speed ranks in the 49th percentile to date. Although he hasn’t had much reason as of yet to really demonstrate that skill.)
Given the yawning gap that exists in the outfied - and Bradley Zimmer seems like little more than a late inning replacement at this point - there is an opportunity for Cavan Biggio to step up and get some at bats while the getting is good.
Biggio had seemingly lost even a grasp of a platoon of second base to Santiago Espinal within the first two series. But he plays a very credible and responsible right field, and desperately needs some at bats to get on track from an 0-for-17 start to the season. (With three walks, which manages to bump his on-base percentage above that of Tapia.)
It’s probably unfortunate for Biggio (and maybe the rest of us) that Tapia will get the call tonight against Nathan Eovaldi, against whom Biggio’s approach may(?) be more suitable.
What, Bo worry? Have I mentioned that it’s early? Still, Bo Bichette is rocking a .556 OPS, which is decided uncool, especially given his privileged spot in the lineup between George Springer (.830 OPS) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.036 OPS).
Bichette has a couple of doubles and a homer, but nary a walk thus far against 11 strikeouts. If we’re being sympathetic, what with the earliness and all, we could say that a guy with a convoluted swing like Bo’s will take a little extra time to get the rust off after the truncated spring training, and it really wouldn’t surprise to see him bang out several big hits in Fenway Park.
Bichette had a number of painful lulls last season, and still managed to lead the league in hits by the end of the year, so a sustained hot streak would be no surprise. And with his thus far exceptional glove work, he has found a way to contribute in the interim.
Elsewhere…
I’m certainly hoping and intending to continue to contribute to Sportsnet through this season, and my first piece ran last Monday. It was a bit of a historical contextualizing of why this year’s team is the most anticipated in Blue Jays history. Sorry for bringing up the 2013 team…it hurts me as much as it hurts you.
I tend to try to speak to the mood or mindset of the fan in a hopefully enlightened way in those Sportsnet pieces, so I’m always happy to hear from you on your perspectives of the season. If you have made it through the process of getting past anger or frustration, and you’d like to share, you probably know where to find me.
And otherwise…
We’ve had some bad news in the form of cancer touching the Blue Jays’ broadcast family so far this season, with both Buck Martinez and Jamie Campbell announcing they undergoing treatment. It can at times feel uncomfortable for me to use the language of “battle” when it comes to serious illness, but suffice to say that we’re holding out every hope for the very best for both. And looking forward to having them calling meaningful games this season.